Water Woes XLIII Has Reality Set In?
- Mark L. Johnson
- 4 days ago
- 3 min read
The hydrologic conditions on the Colorado River are perilous. As of March 1, 2026, the Colorado River watershed snow accululation was 67% of normal and the reservoirs are very low--Lake Powell (25%) and Lake Mead (34%).
As reported in Water Woes XLII-Colorado River EIS Comment Letter & CUT20, the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) issued a Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). Apparently, USBR has received many, many comments, especially from Arizona interests because the proposed guidelines could cut Arizona Colorado River supplies by 32% to 98%.
Tony Davis (Tucson Daily Star) just published a wonderful article entitled, As water lifeline evaporates, Arizona faces a cultural change over water use. I highly recommend reading this article. If you are not a subscriber, you can view the reader version at the link below:
Here are some of the important quoted excerpts in the article:
"Now, this water lifeline is in danger of disappearing not only from public view, but from much or all of the drinking water supplies for Southern and Central Arizona."
"The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is considering a series of proposals that would cut deliveries of CAP water by anywhere from 32% to 98%. Under a separate "dead pool scenario" the bureau is also considering, all CAP water deliveries would be halted."
"It has been a lifeline, a security blanket and a guarantor of seemingly endless population and economic growth."
"But since Udall's (Stewart Udall-AZ Congressman and Secretary of Interior) day, the vision of having outside water nurture a garden-like atmosphere of lawns and fruit trees has given way to the sobering reality that even with CAP, the state lacked enough water to turn Phoenix and Tucson into replicas of Ohio and Michigan."
"But the state's relentless growth, its water management reforms and its conservation efforts have been accompanied by frequent though often ignored warnings that even with CAP, the water supply wouldn't be adequate and that CAP supplies would eventually run short. During the 2000s and 2010s, state and federal officials began to pay heed to these warnings and enacted modest cuts in CAP use."
"This winter, unfortunately, is the kind of winter that is likely to become more and more common due to human-caused climate change. Deep down, water experts know this and fear it. And without CAP, much of Arizona’s water reliability and sustainability will be called in question," said Udall (Brad Udall-Stewart Udall's nephew and researcher at Colorado State University)
"Now, with unprecedented CAP cuts looming, cities will be looking more at stronger "demand management" actions that could include mandatory conservation, depending on the size of the cuts, he (Warren Tenney-Water Users Group) said."
"I don’t think we planned for this. Now we have to plan with different assumptions and scenarios," said Megdal, a CAP board member from 2008 to 2020. "It’s incumbent on all water planners to get serious and get real."
"I think there will be more people questioning whether they should move here," Megdal said. "Property values will decline. It will affect all of us and our economy will have to readjust."
"While a majority of Arizonans recognize our water limits and want a sustainable future, Arizona's legislature is dominated by interests relentlessly pushing for unchecked growth and expansion at the worst possible time. Addressing the much drier future coming our way will require commitment, bipartisan cooperation and extraordinary
leadership, which might not exist in our fractured society," Ferris (attorney and forme ADWR Director) said.
"It’s one thing after another. It doesn’t feel like there is an acknowledgement that we are past a crisis stage," said Ferris. We are in the stage where we have to figure out a path forward. A crisis is something that comes along and passes. This isn’t going to pass."