The United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) released (11/20/24) five alternatives for operating the Colorado River System after 2026. The following provides a Colorado River System Refresher, Summary of the Alternatives and Analysis & Conclusions.
Colorado River System Refresher
For this discussion, the following bulleted Colorado River System basics are what you need to know.
For more details, you can go to Tortolita Alliance's (TA's) Know Your H2O Part VII-Colorado River which provides a more detailed description of the Colorado River System, Law of the River and other related information.
Lower Basin States-Arizona, California & Nevada. Total Colorado River Allocation = 7.5 million acre-feet (maf). Until recent years, the Lower Basin States used more than their allocation but are now required to stay within the 7.5 maf.
Upper Basin States-Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. Total Colorado River Allocation = 7.5 maf. The Upper Basins States have not utilized all of their allocation.
Mexico-Colorado River Allocation = 1.5 maf.
Total Colorado River Allocation = 7.5 maf + 7.5 maf + 1.5 maf = 16.5 maf
Colorado River System Historic & Projected Capacity = 13.0 maf (1)
Over-Allocation = 16.5 maf - 13.0 maf = 3.5 maf
Shortage Programs-Over-Allocation has required USBR and the Lower Basin states to implement a variety of shortage programs which require cut-backs when Colorado River Reservoirs drop below certain levels. These include the 2007 Interim Shortage Guidelines, Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) shortage requirements and voluntary water conservation. The Colorado System is currently in a Tier 1 shortage.
Post-2026 Operating Strategies
The Shortage Programs take the Colorado River System through 2026. Therefore, an operational strategy is needed for the future. USBR has developed (with the input of stakeholders) five potential operating strategies:
No Action
Alternative 1-Federal Authorities
Alternative 1-Federal Authorities Hybrid
Alternative 3-Cooperative Conservation
Alternative 4-Basin Hybrid
You can read more about the specifics of each alternative by downloading the narrative published by USBR at the link below. In general, these alternatives provide different criteria/release volumes from Lake Powell into Lake Mead coupled with different criteria/shortage (cut backs) for the Lower Basin States.
Analysis & Conclusions
The proposed alternatives do not appear to include any shortage requirements for the Upper Basin States. Justifably, Arizona feels that all the Basin States (Upper & Lower) should participate in any shortage requirements. This conundrum has prompted Arizona to cry fowl and hint at possible litigation.
Tortolita Alliance (TA) sent a letter to USBR on 9/1/22 (click on link below) suggesting the Cut-20 Program, whereby all Colorado River delivery contracts be cut across the board by 20% (3.5 maf/16.5 maf). This would eliminate the 3.5 maf Over-Allocation and the current and proposed complicated shortage programs would not be necessary.
(1)
The last big water litigation case in the US was Arizona v California and it lasted for 75 years (1931-2006). Additional lengthy water litigation will not help the situation and delay the inevitable.
The Cut-20 Program is simple. Allocate only water that is actually available. It is likely USBR has the authority to implement such a program. Just do it now and avoid decades of haggling over water that does not exist.